NOAA updated its hurricane season outlook for 2025 on Thursday, maintaining its forecast for above-normal activity as the peak of the season arrives.
The updated forecast was roughly in line with its pre-season prediction, putting the number of expected named storms at between 13 and 18. Of those, NOAA says 5 to 9 could become hurricanes and two to five of those could become major hurricanes of Category 3 or above, which means winds of at least 111 mph.
Its previous prediction was for 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five of Category 3 strength or more.
A typical hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, results in 14 named storms. NOAA said the likelihood of above-normal activity for this season was 50%.
The reasons for the forecast include especially warm waters in the Atlantic and Caribbean, as well as active West African monsoon winds, which can lead to storm development. There is also no El Nino or La Nina this year. La Nina can also help with storm creation by reducing the amount of wind shear that disrupts hurricane formation, among other factors.
There have been four named storms so far this season, including Tropical Storm Chantal, which hit the Carolinas over the July 4th weekend. None of the named storms so far have been hurricanes.
Tropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the year, dissipated over the Atlantic; Tropical Storm Barry made landfall just south of Tampico, Mexico, as a tropical depression and dissipated; and Tropical Storm Dexter eventually moved away from the United States into the North Atlantic.
“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, said in a statement.
Louisiana marks the 20th anniversary this year of both Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, two of the most destructive storms in history. NOAA presented its initial 2025 outlook at the Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna to commemorate Katrina's 20th anniversary.