Skepticism is the watchword for LSU’s season opener at Clemson, and no one has to invent reasons for it.
The Tigers have dropped five straight season openers since 2019. They’re 0-for-this-decade. The fact that LSU is ranked No. 9 in the preseason polls does little to improve the outlook since Clemson is ranked No. 4 and will be playing on its home turf the night of Aug. 30 (6:30 p.m., ABC). Those Tigers are currently a 4-point favorite, justifiable against an LSU team trying to work offensively behind a rebuilt line and trying to integrate a large group of newcomers at a host of key positions.
You’ve heard all the reasons to question the ability of Brian Kelly’s krewe to go into that other Death Valley — Death Valley Jr., as he put it — and pull off what would be a mild but definitive upset.
All that said, LSU is not playing the Philadelphia Eagles in this opener. Clemson has its question marks, too. Here are seven reasons for LSU to be optimistic it will return home to its Death Valley 1-0:
1. Poor rushing defense
Clemson returns a pair of preseason All-ACC defensive linemen in TJ Parker and Peter Woods, but they were part of a defense that was woeful against the run in 2024. Clemson ranked 85th in the FBS and 16th in the 17-team ACC, allowing 160.6 yards per game on the ground. The Tigers surrendered 210 or more yards rushing five times in 2024, including 288 to The Citadel and 292 against Texas in their College Football Playoff matchup. Clemson was also 69th in total yards allowed last season (374.1 ypg) and 49th nationally in points per game allowed (23.4 ppg).
2. New defensive coordinator
Not surprisingly, all these poor defensive stats led Clemson coach Dabo Swinney to jettison defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin, who replaced Brent Venables when the latter became coach at Oklahoma in 2022. Swinney brought in highly respected Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen to take Goodwin’s place. Similar to second-year LSU DC Blake Baker, who led his unit from woeful in 2023 under Matt House to tolerable in 2024, Allen can be expected to improve Clemson’s defense. But in a season opener, it’s LSU, which returns its offensive and defensive play callers in Joe Sloan and Baker, that has the advantage. Allen will probably toughen up Clemson’s defense in time, but in Week 1 may be too early for that.
3. 0-for-SEC
Clemson went 7-1 in the ACC this past season and also won the conference title game against upstart SMU. But against the Southeastern Conference it was a much grimmer picture. Clemson got plastered 34-3 in the season opener against Georgia in Atlanta, lost 17-14 at home to bitter in-state rival South Carolina and then lost 38-24 at Texas in the first round of the CFP. Past performance does not presage future results, of course, but the fact is Clemson did not beat anyone in 2024 regarded as highly as LSU is this season. Clemson’s best win was SMU, 34-31, a team that made the CFP but finished 13 in ESPN’s postseason power rankings. Clemson’s losses were to No. 7 Georgia, No. 12 Louisville (33-21), No. 15 South Carolina and No. 2 Texas.
4. Is Cade Klubnik all that?
Like LSU with Garrett Nussmeier, Clemson returns a highly regarded veteran quarterback in Klubnik. He completed 63% of his passes this past season for 3,639 yards with 36 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He also rushed for 463 net yards and seven TDs. In Clemson’s four losses, however, Klubnik’s passing was more pedestrian. Against Georgia, Louisville, South Carolina and Texas he threw four TDs and three interceptions combined.
5. Trending under
In 2021, Clemson was preseason No. 3 in the AP poll and finished No. 14 with a 10-3 record. In 2023, Clemson was preseason No. 9 like LSU and finished No. 20 with a 9-4 mark. Not failing seasons by any means, but enough to make you doubt that Clemson will live up to this year’s lofty expectations.
6. Running game worries
Klubnik is by far Clemson’s top returning rusher, with Phil Mafah (1,115 yards in 2024) having moved on. The Tigers’ current projected starting running back is Adam Randall, a converted receiver who had four carries a year ago. His backup is Gideon Davidson, a highly regarded freshman but still someone making his first collegiate carries next week.
7. Punter problems
Less than two weeks from the LSU game and Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has yet to pick a punter between Jack Smith, Robert Gunn and Will McCune. All three possess boom or bust legs, kickers who could pin LSU deep or boot a dying duck to give LSU great field position in a tight game. “They can launch it 60” yards, Swinney said recently. “They can also shank it 20. … Right now, I’d have to pray about it, put their names in a hat and ask God to pull out the right one for me on game day.”
